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Issue 61- 14082009
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Deflation is more dangerous that Inflation !
Economics is a simple science which is too complicated, said
statement is proved true today, with conflicting reports about
Inflation is measured using the WPI ( Whole Sale Price Index ). When
inflation becomes negative, it becomes deflation. For example, say WPI
June 06,2007 was 200 and on June 06, 2008 was 220, then we say,
was ten percent. If on June 06, 2009 the WPI was 231, then we say that
Inflation is five percent more than last year's.
On June 18, 2009, the Govt announced that India is under deflation.
If deflation is prolonged, then it is very dangerous, more dangerous
inflation. It will engender crisis and recession. More than prices
it is the expectation that prices will fall, that is more dangerous.
consumers believe that prices will fall furthur, investment decisions
be delayed. My friend was saying he will not buy a flat of 80 lakhs
he will get it for 40 lakhs after two years. Consumer judges that it
Bear Phase and will not invest and will wait for prices to fall. Let
Stock Market or Realty, the intelligent will only enter at the end of
Bear Phase and not at the beginning. !
Inflation is the phase where the prices of products and services go up
bullish curve and Deflation is the phase where the prices of products
services go down in a bearish curve !
The prices of some commodities - particularly foodstuffs - are rising
even the deflationary phase. The Wholesale Price Index is based on 430
commodities. Ordinary people are bothered only about the prices of
foodstuffs, rice, sugar, wheat, fish, vegetables etc. The prices of
coal, aviation fuel etc, ( which is also included in the 430
are something the common man is not bothered about. The common man
benefit when the price of aviation fuel comes down. But the prices of
foodstuffs do not come down and this explains why prices of some
are rising during deflation.
Now this inexplicability is resolved when everything is based on the
the Consumer Price Index.
The Wholesale Price Index on June 06, 2008 was 236.5 and on June 06,
was 232.7 and hence Deflation is 1.61%.
Now Consumer Price Index can be followed as it highlights the prices
essential commodities and if we follow the CPI, we have an inflation
at 8% !
Inflation was 11% when oil was ruling at 140 dollars per barrel. The
inflation of today is merely a statistical aberration.
People will delay their buying during Deflation. During inflation,
people thought price of rice was bound to go up, they bought heavy
quantities of rice. Now the reverse phenomenon will happen during
The buying of rice, wheat, medicines etc which are essential will be
deferred. There will be less demand. The manufacturers will have to
down output. There will be retrenchment of employees as business
slack, unemployment will rise and the whole economy will be affected
From 1990-1996, Japan was under deflation. The World Financial Crisis
here to stay. Global economic deflation is at 2%. Global income will
down 2%. In Japan, Singapore, Dubai and Russia income will come down
Of the G 20 countries, only India and China has recorded good growth.
2009, China will grow by 7% and India by 6%.
Now India has grown by 5.8% during this global recessionary phase and
shows the resilience of the nation. The export sector has become weak.
then the industries led by consumer demand like steel, cement, cars,
wheelers do not face recession at all. We can expect a 6% growth this
fiscal, if no adverse factors hit us. There should not be any
an economy with more than 4% growth, according to Economics. Even if
deflation hit us, it will only be a temporary phenomenon.
Whether Inflation or Deflation is more dangerous is an interesting
Economics. High inflation and prolonged Deflation are equally
a developing country like India, moderate inflation is ideal. A 3%
is ideal and necessary for a healthy Indian economy.
The resurrection of the primary market
The IPO market is back in action. It was more or less dead after 2008,
the market fell sharply. This year 2 companies had cancelled their
to bad market conditions in February.
Mahindra Holidays and Resorts is coming with an IPO on June 23. 92.66
shares are the initial public offering.
The Sensex is at 14.5 K levels. One wonders whether this rise has
to do with the IPOs which are going to come to the market !
Deflation is the effect of the financial planet, Jupiter, being
debilitated in Capricorn.
Article by G Kumar, astrologer, academician & programmer of
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Jupiter in Capricorn is debilitated. Hence our advice is not to
invest in Stocks or Realty. . Be wise and hold on for the time
being ! More
You can, however, buy
gold at lower levels. Gold is supposed to reach $1500 !
Investments & Speculation - Because of the World Financial
all markets are in Recession. This is World Recession. Boom
the economy has extended itself and a Recession becomes due to restore
it to its original balance. It is the Law of Balance in
However, we find that Gold Market is on a Bull run, in sharp
contradistinction to Realty & Stock. The Dollar and the Rupee are
falling. I can tell you my experience. I bought gold coins
210 and sold it for Rs 1295/-, a gain of
85 INR per gm. Isnt that enough?
It is better not to indulge in Stock & Realty. The Realty growth
curve in India has been halted by the World Recession and
it is better to
exercise caution and restraint in Stock & Realty. In the Stock
are some bear rallies, but the Primary Impulse continues
to be bearish
In any market, - gold, realty, stock & forex etc - the key
Market Success is Contrarian Investing. Buy cheap, sell dear is
principle in all markets -stock, realty, gold, forex etc.
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Dont be bothered about Recession. Gold is the best hedge against
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